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US dollar index set to keep going higher in channel The US dollar is coming off channel support, with it pointed higher towards a potential run-in with the mark. US dollar index trading towards support, watch long-term channel The US dollar is trading towards significant support, that keeps the outlook neutral at worst if it holds, but if it breaks could spark selling pressure.
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USD technical outlook: US dollar rally to gain momentum? More broadly, other things being equal, investors will also tend to prefer countries with a stable macroeconomic environment, because it reduces both the variance of returns and the likelihood of large negative returns Burger and Warnock In Australia, macroeconomic stability has been promoted by sound frameworks for fiscal and monetary policy, particularly following the move to a floating exchange rate in the s and inflation targeting in the s, as well as a sound regulatory framework that has promoted financial stability Stevens Graph 2.
These frameworks contributed to Australia's relatively strong performance during the major financial crises of the s and s, and have supported lower volatility in output and inflation over recent decades. Inflation and currency depreciation can also be a source of losses for investors. This is true for both domestic investors, who face a loss of real purchasing power, as well as foreign investors, whose investment may be worth less in their home currency.
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Thus, for countries wishing to fund in their domestic currency, there are benefits from demonstrating that inflation can be kept low and stable in the face of shocks and that the currency trades in line with fundamentals. This reduces the scope for authorities to use devaluation opportunistically, and allows the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber, moderating macroeconomic outcomes.
Consistent with this, monetary policy credibility is associated with larger domestic currency bond markets and less reliance on foreign currency debt Burger and Warnock In Australia, inflation has been moderate for much of the nation's recent history, although this was not always the case. In colonial times, consumer price inflation was unstable, with annual price changes sometimes exceeding 20 per cent Graph 3. High and variable inflation has also featured, on occasion, in the post-war period.
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Even so, annual inflation has averaged only 4 per cent since the beginning of the 20th century, and where there has been high inflation, it has usually coincided with high inflation in the rest of the world Caballero, Cowan and Kearns Since the introduction of inflation targeting in , inflation has been low and stable, consistent with the Reserve Bank's goal of achieving an annual inflation rate of around 2—3 per cent over time.
Australia's exchange rate is market determined. Indeed, the Australian dollar is viewed as one of the most freely floating currencies globally IMF Australia's currency was floated in In the decade that followed, the exchange rate was somewhat volatile, and the Reserve Bank used both market transactions and changes in interest rates to reduce significant misalignment in the value of the currency.
The development of a domestic government bond market is a key early step towards domestic currency funding. With less foreign currency exposure, the monetary authorities can float the exchange rate with less risk that a depreciation will tighten financial conditions. This reduces the need to intervene in the currency, supporting currency credibility, while also allowing the exchange rate to act as an automatic stabiliser.
Once the capital account is open, a liquid government bond market acts as a simple and low-risk introduction for foreign investors to a country and its currency, and, over time, can encourage them to hold a wider array of domestic currency assets. A market-based government bond market also helps to establish a risk-free yield curve, which is essential for developing an efficient hedging market. The development of Australia's domestic government bond market began during World War I. Prior to the war, most of Australia's debt was issued by colonial or state government bodies in London, denominated in British pounds and purchased by non-residents Graph 4.
Domestic issuance jumped again during World War II as budget deficits rose and increased further in the decades that followed, in part supported by regulations that required financial institutions to hold government securities Grenville By the late s, almost all government debt was being issued domestically to Australian residents in Australian dollars Graph 5. The financial reforms of the s sparked the beginning of foreign inflows into Australian Government bonds.
It also marked the beginning of the internationalisation of the Australian dollar as a currency for funding and investment more generally. More recently, many foreign central banks have begun to invest a small share of their foreign exchange reserves in Australian Government bonds. Reflecting these developments, foreign ownership has risen steadily, peaking at nearly 80 per cent in the early s Graph 6. The reforms of the s also sparked a dramatic increase in both the demand for, and supply of, Australian dollar funding to the private sector, facilitating the development of Australia's corporate bond and equity markets.
Prior to the reforms, regulation of banks and capital flows ensured that Australian banks and businesses were mostly funded in Australian dollars by Australian residents Black et al Much of this supply was met by demand from foreign residents, with foreign ownership rising to about 40 per cent of Australian equities and two-thirds of Australian corporate bonds by the early s Black and Kirkwood Currency hedging markets increase the scope for private entities to fund in domestic currency by allowing exchange rate risk to be separated from funding and investment decisions.
Without currency hedging markets, Australian banks, which raise a portion of their funding in foreign currency, would either have to lend in Australian dollars and assume exchange rate risk directly, or pass on the exchange rate risk to borrowers by lending in foreign currency. Instead, currency hedging markets allow banks to pass on their exchange rate risk to other parties.
These parties may be domestic participants with an opposing currency position to those of the Australian banks, such as superannuation funds seeking to diversify into foreign assets without incurring exchange rate risk. They may also be non-residents, including those that have issued Australian dollar-denominated bonds in the onshore Kangaroo or offshore markets, as well as foreign investors seeking to take on Australian dollar risk Debelle Though subject to considerable uncertainty, estimates of these transfers are provided in Table 1.
More generally, currency hedging markets provide a mechanism for an economy to acquire insurance from external providers against events that cause a depreciation of the exchange rate Caballero et al Without such markets, the vulnerability of the financial system and economy to shocks can increase. As a result, the government may need to provide insurance in the form of a fixed exchange rate backed by ample foreign exchange reserves, which can be costly.
In Australia, it took time for deep and liquid hedging markets to develop after the exchange rate was floated. Development was spurred, in part, by the increase in Australian dollar volatility that accompanied the float, as well as the need to hedge the interest rate and foreign exchange risks associated with the increase in foreign currency borrowing that accompanied deregulation Graph 8.
Today, Australian dollar hedging markets are widely viewed as deep and liquid and capable of efficiently transferring exchange rate risk around the financial system. The banking system plays a critical role in this process. Banks raise most of Australia's offshore and foreign currency debt and are typically the counterparty to entities acquiring Australian dollar exposure via hedging markets. Accordingly, well-capitalised banks, with robust risk management practices and regulatory oversight, are critical to this arrangement.
Australia's banks are among the highest-rated in the world, with capital ratios likely well within the top quartile of equivalent banks internationally. Sometimes, economic or financial shocks have helped re-orientate funding towards domestically issued, domestic currency instruments. For instance, in Australia's case, the closure of international markets during the world wars acted as a catalyst for the government bond market to develop.
Another example is the rise in net capital inflows over the late s and early s. This contributed to the opening of the capital account and the floating of the Australian dollar, which set the stage for the development of Australia's capital and hedging markets.
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The introduction of compulsory superannuation also encouraged the development of domestic capital and hedging markets. Finally, the high inflation episode of the late s contributed to the establishment of a credible framework for monetary policy, which was important for encouraging investment in Australian financial assets. Funding in domestic currency has several benefits for the Australian economy. Most importantly, it allows the exchange rate to be a shock absorber Debelle If Australian entities funded their Australian dollar assets with unhedged foreign currency, then a depreciation of the exchange rate would increase the amount of Australian dollars needed to service their debts.
Funding in domestic currency also helps the Reserve Bank to implement monetary policy, promote financial system stability and manage Australia's foreign exchange reserves:. Australia's ability to fund in domestic currency includes the ability to fund by issuing Australian dollar-denominated equity. This can help cushion the economy in times of financial stress. Although there are many benefits associated with funding in domestic currency, the transition has not been free of costs. In Australia, many of these costs were paid in the immediate period after the financial system was deregulated and the capital account was liberalised, and have since dissipated.
Other costs, such as the premium Australian entities pay to swap foreign currencies for Australian dollars, remain a feature of the Australian financial system.
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However, these costs are small relative to the considerable benefits of funding in Australian dollars. For some time after the financial reforms of the early s, financial markets applied a risk premium to Australian assets relative to other major economies. Yields on year Australian Government bonds, for instance, were high relative to those of the United States Graph In large part, this reflected the expectation that inflation would be higher and more uncertain in Australia than in the rest of the world. The Commonwealth Government had also yet to prove its credibility under the more open and transparent tender system for issuing government debt Battellino and Plumb Nevertheless, the high returns on offer during much of the s and s encouraged foreign investment in Australian dollar securities.
Over time, risk premiums decreased, particularly following the adoption of inflation targeting in the s. This was supported by Australia's performance during the inflationary episode of the mid s and the Asian Financial Crisis, which demonstrated the effectiveness and credibility of Australia's economic policy framework, especially its framework for monetary policy. Transitioning to a deregulated and liberalised financial system also involved a number of other costs. Countries often experience a financial crisis after liberalisation, as the risk management practices of banks and regulators are initially underdeveloped.
In Australia, lending standards declined over the late s and borrowing using commercial property as collateral increased. This resulted in large losses for many banks when there was a sharp correction in that market in the early s recession Kent and Lowe In addition, it took time for market participants to adjust to — and hedge — the higher exchange rate volatility associated with the floating exchange rate regime.
For instance, surveys at the time suggest that more than half of Australian importers and manufacturers had essentially no hedging in place in the year after the Australian dollar was floated Becker and Fabbro Some non-financial firms also took out unhedged Swiss franc loans in the mid s, only to incur significant losses when the Australian dollar more than halved in value against the Swiss franc between and Australia continues to pay a modest premium to borrow in Australian dollars in two main ways.
First, risk-free rates in Australia have historically been higher than those of the major international currencies although this gap has narrowed in recent years.