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List of Partners vendors. It is intended to represent the total number of paid workers in the U. The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause.
With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings. Like any other piece of economic data, there are three ways to analyze the U. Trading news releases can be very profitable, but it is not for the faint of the heart.
This is because speculating on the direction of a given currency pair upon the release can be very dangerous. Fortunately, it is possible to wait for the wild rate swings to subside. Then traders can attempt to capitalize on the real market move after the speculators have been wiped out or have taken profits or losses.
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The purpose of this is to attempt to capture rational movement after the announcement, instead of the irrational volatility pervading the first few minutes after an announcement. The release of the NFP generally occurs on the first Friday of every month at a. As with all aspects of trading, whether we make money on it is not assured. Approaching the trade from a logical standpoint, based on how the market is reacting, can provide us with more consistent results than simply anticipating the directional movement the event will cause.
Because the forex market is open 24 hours a day, all traders have the ability to trade the news event. The logic behind the strategy is to wait for the market to digest the information's significance.
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After the initial swings have occurred, and after market participants have had a bit of time to reflect on what the number means, they will enter a trade in the direction of the dominating momentum. They wait for a signal indicating the market may have chosen a direction to take rates. This avoids getting in too early and decreases the probability of being whipsawed out of the market before it has chosen a direction.
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The strategy can be traded off of five- or minute charts. For the rules and examples below, a minute chart will be used, although the same rules apply to a five-minute chart.
Signals may appear in different timeframes, so stick with one or the other. Looking at the chart above, the vertical line marks the a. EST p.
Market Data
As you can see from the chart, there are three bars, or 45 minutes, of back-and-forth action following the release. During this time, traders do not trade until they see an inside bar. The inside bar has a square around it on the chart. This bar's price range is fully contained by the previous bar. Traders will enter when a bar closes higher or lower than the inside bar.