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Dollar slides on improving European, U. Taiwan punishes Deutsche Bank, others in currency speculation case. Dollar extends rebound as U. Dollar bounce from low continues after U. Pound climbs against weaker euro, gains seen as temporary. New year but old themes to weigh heavily on the dollar. Dollar up from lows on economic hopes, euro profit-taking. With the Treasury issuing more bonds, their value decreases, and returns on US debt rises.

In turn, that means that returns on safe assets are more attractive — making the yieldless yellow metal less so. The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick, instead met with some fresh supply near the 1.

The intraday downtick was exclusively sponsored by the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. The USD prolonged its recent bullish momentum and shot to four-month tops amid the prospects for a relatively faster US economic recovery from the pandemic. Investors remained optimistic about the outlook for the US economy amid the impressive pace of coronavirus vaccinations and the passage of a massive stimulus package. That said, a highly-successful vaccination distribution program and the easing of some lockdown restrictions in England might extend some support to the British pound.

Looking at the technical picture, acceptance below confluence support near mid Hence, any attempted recovery move might still be seen as a selling opportunity. Erdogan replaced him with M. Duman, who worked with the now Governor S. Kavcioglu at the local lender Esbank back in the s. In the meantime, investors continue to favour the outflows from the Turkish currency amidst mounting concerns of the start of another easing cycle by the central bank at its meeting on April 15 th. On the latter, it is worth recalling that Governor Kavcioglu said on Monday that an interest rate cut is not guaranteed wait, what?

The near-term outlook for the lira remains fragile to say the least. Kavcioglu is expected to reverse wipe out the shift to a market friendly approach of the monetary policy that was successfully implemented by former Governor N. Agbal back in November Against this backdrop, it will surprise nobody to see spot trading around Government pressure on the CBRT vs. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms.

Economic announcements

Growth outlook vs. At the moment the pair is gaining 0. On the other hand, a drop below 7. The momentum pushed the pair back closer to the 1. The upbeat US economic outlook continued underpinning the US dollar, which got an additional boost from a sharp spike in the US Treasury bond yields. Looking at the technical picture, the pair has been trending higher along an upward sloping channel over the past one week or so.

The set-up points to a short-term bullish trend and supports prospects for additional gains. That said, bulls might still wait for a sustained strength beyond the 1. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.

The latter coincides with monthly swing highs, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for an extension of the recent strong recovery move from multi-year lows touched on March On the flip side, dips towards the 1. This is followed by strong horizontal support near the 1. On a yearly basis, the CPI rose to 1.

Gold added to the previous day's losses and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The US dollar rallied to fresh four-month tops, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity. Apart from this, a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields further collaborated to drive flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding deep in the bearish territory and support prospects for additional weakness.

That said, extremely oversold RSI on hourly charts warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move. We look for this to now ideally hold to keep the immediate risk higher in the range. As of writing, the pair was up 0. The benchmark year US Treasury bond yield, which touched its highest level in nearly 15 months at 1. None of these figures triggered a meaningful market reaction.

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The Norwegian krone gives away part of its earlier gains vs. Following an earlier knee-jerk to the In the domestic docket, Retail Sales in Norway contracted 0. The drop of sales in grocery stores was mainly behind the decline in the index, all amidst persistent lockdown restriction. NOK continues to target the psychological That, coupled with a faster economic recovery, the firm vaccine rollout and prospects of a solid rebound in the global activity are seen collaborating with the view of a stronger currency in the medium-term.

It is worth recalling that the Norges Bank is predicted to be one of the first central banks to hike rates in the DM space. As of writing the cross is up 0. On the other hand, a breach of Also, Large Retailer Sales declined by less than anticipated, down by 4.

Copper LME is consolidating but this is seen as a healthy development in the core bull trend, according to strategists at Credit Suisse. This though will be seen as a healthy and overdue phase following the impressive rally of the past year. Economists at Credit Suisse continue to look for an eventual clear break lower to expose the and lows at 0.

Whilst this should be allowed to hold at first, our broader bias would be for an eventual test of long-term support from the and lows at 0. Removal of here would see a much larger and long-lasting top complete.

Only above 0. However, the renewed USD strength forced the pair to reverse its course. Earlier in the day, the upbeat market mood, as reflected by modest gains posted by the major Asian equity indexes, helped the AUD find demand.

Current account balance

On the other hand, the US Treasury bond yields' performance continues to impact the USD's market valuation in the absence of significant fundamental drivers. Currently, the year US T-bond yield is up 3. US Bond Yields are expected to see a more gradual and stilted rise during the second quarter, with an elevated risk of a short-term pullback in the first part of the quarter.

We therefore expect to see a more stilted move higher during Q2, with the risk of a near term correction elevated. Whilst not our base case, the next level beyond here is seen at 1. The cross failed to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the vicinity of the key 0. The shared currency's relative underperformance could be attributed to concerns about the economic fallout from the third wave of COVID infections.

Investors seem worried that pandemic-related restrictions could derail the fragile Eurozone economic recovery amid the slow pace of vaccinations. On the other hand, a highly-successful vaccination distribution program and the gradual easing of lockdown restrictions in England extended some support to the British pound. The developments have been fueling speculations that the UK will be one of the first major economies to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Even from a technical perspective, slightly overstretched conditions warrant some consolidation or a modest short-covering bounce, which might further hold bearish traders from placing fresh bets. Market participants now look forward to the release of flash German consumer inflation figures.

The drop gathered extra steam after breaching the day SMA 1.

Sellers remain in control of the price action around the pair for the time being, exposing a deeper pullback to, initially, the 1. Further south of 1. The European Central Bank could favor greener assets in its bond purchases but should not be responsible for developing the new benchmarks for climate-friendly quantitative easing, Governing Council member and the Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot told an online conference organized by the Financial Times FT. And that's why we stimulate the harmonization of disclosure standards.

The black gold ignores the upbeat market mood and heads south amid a broadly stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, the surging Treasury yields make the oil less attractive as an alternative higher-yielding asset. Meanwhile, the black gold could track the US dollar price action and the broader market sentiment. The dollar extends the rally further and manages well to finally break above the key barrier at Against this, the continuation of the uptrend looks likely in the short-term horizon.

That said, there are no relevant up barriers until the November highs in the The downside pressure around the index looks alleviated after the recent breakout of the day SMA If DXY manages to keep business above the latter on a sustainable basis, then the outlook should shift to constructive, at least in the near-term. The recent bounce from four-month lows stalled near a resistance marked by the top boundary of an upward sloping channel.

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Given last week's steep fall, the mentioned channel constitutes the formation of a bearish continuation flag pattern on hourly charts. The negative outlook is reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart are still holding deep in the bearish territory. This, in turn, supports prospects for further losses amid a strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. Meanwhile, oscillators on the 1-hourly chart have been gaining some positive traction and recovered from the bearish zone on the 4-hourly chart.

Market reaction

The set-up favours intraday bullish traders, through any positive move might still be seen as a selling opportunity. That said, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the 0. The said area comprises the trend-channel support and hour SMA, which should act as a key pivotal point for traders. The downward momentum could further get extended towards challenging the 0. On the flip side, any attempted recovery might continue to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the top end of the channel.

The mentioned barrier is pegged near the 0. The recovery looks firm and initially targets the interim hurdle at the While above the short-term support line in the This area of contention coincides with the day SMA. In the meantime, while above the day SMA at Additionally, the Credit Suisse analyst team finds that the pair could actually rise as far as 0.

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