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If the prime minis ter was not particularly wise, he has at least proved to be lucky. Monetary eas- ing has bsen so sharp that some sort of recovery was inevitable. Today the signs are everywhere: in the housing market, in retail sales, in industrial output and even in unemployment.

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The upsurge may well prove steeper than was supposed by most fore- casters, including the Treasury, earlier this year. Luck cannot be relied upon, however, especially where British economic recoveries are con- cerned.

Too many have ended in the came r slsf ul way, with eztesm consumption, balance of payments crises and rising inflation. The danger facing Mr Major is not that there will be no return to growth, but that it will not last Export-led growth The British economy has the lowest underlying rate of inflation for close to a generation. But it also has close tc the largest ever fiscal deficit in peacetime and a substantial current account deficit at the end of a deep recession.

The government needs fast growth to provide a painless cure for the fis- cal deficit, while such growth would exacerbate the external def- icit The way out must be export- led growth. But export-led growth means growth without soaring real wages. It means resisting excessive appreciation of sterling, if necessary by cutting interest rates again.

It means closing the fiscal deficit aggressively. Above all, it means that this recovery must not end in a spurt of wage inflation. Does Mr Major have the mettle to achieve all this? On past form the answer is, once again, mixed. The bill to rat- ify the Maastricht treaty is past the most difficult portion of its passage through parliament It may yet suffer a reverse, but that looks unlikely. A long drawn-out and debilitating episode that threatened to spilt the Conservative party is drawing to a successful close.

It may not have been magnificently managed, but it has been managed. TO mark the moment.

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Little that he said is likely to play well on the Continent, but the endea- vour may contribute to an aura of renascent leadership at home. Challenges ahead The pits closure episode is another case in point The Initial announcement that 31 coal mines were to be shut down at once was an error of judgment, for which Mr Major as well as the industry secretary, Mr Michael Heseltine, was rightly blamed. During the ensuing months It looked as if this might result in a wholesale retreat In the event the govern- ment has saved most o. A trial of a similar nature is now about to be endured by Mr John Fatten, the education secretary, as he wres- tles with teachers who threaten to boycott tests of their pupils' per- formance under the national curriculum.

Other possible setbacks lie ahead. Lifcsral Dsmccrats arc the current favourites to capture New- bury from the government in the forthcoming by-election. That would further shave the govern- ment's already unreliable majority in the Commons. The employ- ment secretary has not been a success; the secretary for social security is not grasping any net- tles. The foreign secretary should be kept in post as long as possible. Some cabinet ministers should go; some should be moved to new posts. A strong, reconstituted, and credible team is sorely needed.. This has been more than usually evident this week, with 86 dead in the ashes of a religious fanatic's fortress in Texas, a jobs biQ killed by 43 obdurate Republican senators and with a nation now conditioned to demand to know who was at fault But a presidency - as well as the po litical and national contexts in which it operates - is a permanent work in progress.

Had he promised a rose gar- den. But even these demonstrate the enormous gulf between Mr Clinton and his predecessor, above all domestically. Mr Bush thought everything could be set to rights by a balanced budget amendment, the iinp item veto and a conservative Supreme Court, of which he had only the latter and then not consis- tently. It is, on the other hand, hard to imagine a problem, no matter how small, to which Mr Clinton could not come up with a pro- grammed solution and even a means, probably a tax, to pay for it.

And he will get the chance substan- tially tc reshape the nation's high- est court. Government, in the CUnton doc- trine, can make a difference. It may, as he frequently says, have to "get by on less", and its pockets, even in the great cause of aiding Russian reform, may not be too deep. But this does not invalidate its mission to lead by example and, where nec- essary, to intervene.

Thus, tiie first d 2 ys have been phenomenally busy. The single great achievement has been the pas- sage by Congress of the broad out- lines of the plan to cut the budget deficit substantially over the next five years.

It is even possible that Con- gress will improve on it and cut spending even more. But this has not been alL Also at home, Mr Clinton, under his wife's direction, has got stuck into the momentous issue of healthcare reform, with ssricus proposals due perhaps next month. He struck down Republican restrictions on abortion and in the labour market, obtained a family leave bill, com- mitted hims elf to ending tile ban on homosexuals serving in the mili- tary, instituted easier bank lending tc small businesses, inserted the government into technological research and development, set up a civilian national service corps, mediated in the trees-versus-spotted owls dispute, promised to sign the international biodiversity treaty, and more besides.

AH it lacks is the single-minded focus of the first Reagan term, opposition to which was made in any case almost Impolite by the president's own brush with an assassin's bullet. There have been setbacks, the most telling of which was this week's defeat of the jobs bill at the hands of a Congress run by Demo- crats. The package may be dismissed as economically insignificant - at bn it is one- tanth of the size of that just pro- posed by Japan - but its demise in its proposed form serves as a potent reminder to the new president that working on Congress is a frill-time occupation. Successful presidents instil a mix- ture of fear and respect into Con- gress.

Sc for Mr Clinton has earned respect for his marketing abilities but has not generated fear. He was unable to scare oB the Republican filibuster, itself a remarkable dis- play of solidarity by a party in search of a role and nervous of being blamed for yet more gridlock. Somehow the White House has to learn to overcome its understand- able dislike of Republicans such as Senator Phil Gramm of Texas, a mar, with the voles of a dentist's drill and a personality to match, and come to terms with the crafty minority leader.

Senator Bob Dole, so adept at making trouble if not courted or cowed. As a very practi- cal politician, Mr Clinton should know about compromise. Not that the Democrats are neces- sarily much easier, especially the new, independent-minded freshman class. Of the barons. Mr Clinton already has his hands f un with the resentful Sam Nunn of Georgia on the gay question. Even George Mitchell, the faithful majority leader, Pat Moynihan, of the finance committee, and Dan Rostenkowski, powerful chairman of the House ways and means committee, have started muttering disapproval about value-added fay as and investment credits.

The fact that he has held only two for- mal presidential press conferences so far puzzles many because Mr Clinton is so articulate when think- ing on his feet, so much the stimu- lating contrast to the men who went before him. Indeed Mr Clinton is still playing pretty well in the heartland through his public speeches and other appearances, which repeatedly dis- play his extraordinary ability to explain the complex in comprehen- sible and sometimes moving terms.

H e is also making some serious friends at the state and local gov- ernment levels, not simply by loosening the federal purse strings but by actively encouraging the sort of pol- icy innovation that he feels appro- priate for all forms of government This should be no surprise, given his record in Arkansas and his recruitment to his cabinet of sev- eral members known for their state, not federal, experience. But going over the head of Wash- ington, where much policy and even more comment is minted, is risky, and in the capital his administra- tion has already been stretched painftilly rtrni.

At the last count he had nominated barely a third of the approximately 3, senior political appointments in his fief and many of these had still not been con- firmed In office, a handful because erf tixe typically mischievous delay- ing tactics of Senator Jesse Helms, the conservative curmudgeon. The net result has been much resentment, some ridicule and, worse, the occasional acute embar- rassment Whole departments, most obviously Justice, have been mostly run by brand new cabinet officers assisted by Republican boliowsi unaccountable political adhere and career civil servants without, clout.

Cynics poi nt out thac- the last president to try and do everything himself was Jimmy. Foreign policy clearly interests- Mr Clinton, as it does every presi- dent, and his maide n voyage jn to Vancouver with Boris Yeltsin, showed him at his subtle best, art- fully disguising that the Russian president was the supplicant -by - apologising for submarine collisions and old but extant US anti-Sovtet trade laws. In contrast to Mr Bush be appears to take no particular com- fort in the company of foreign statesmen, entertaining them either to businesslike lunches or.

With the additional current exception of Bosnia, Mr Clinton has chosen to leave most of the rest of routine foreign policy to his subor- dinates, under Warren Christopher, the very capable secretary of state, while the domestic agenda is being pursued.

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This neat division does not always work. The Vancouver sum- mit and its Tokyo follow-up also preoccupied Lloyd Bentsen, the Treasury secretary, who knows more about twisting arms in Wash- ington than anyone. There was no one of equivalent clout left behind to lobby for the jobs MIL Mr Clinton seems perfectly com- fortable in the. The great question is whether this one-man band and his formidable wife can keep it up. It could all end in tears, but for the moment, and for the next days, too, there is going to be more going on.

That would not have been predicted under George Bush. At a news conference at the bank's London headquarters on Thursday, the man in the middle of the controversy about EBRD over- spending perched on the edge of a vast podium. It was as if a well-at- tired Sorbonne professor was doing his best tc approach a bevy of slightly unsavoury students.

Mr Attali, who describes himself first as a writer, and only second as the president of an international bank, acknowledged it was not the first time - and it would not be the last - that he faced criticism. The expectant crowd of journal- ists were tossed some finely-pack- aged understatements.

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